In the economic outlook for 2025, the slowdown in the labor market and the stabilization of interest rates are highlighted as key factors. The global economy is expected to be affected by complex changes in policy and exchange rate volatility, which will also act as important variables in the domestic stock market.
|
[Korean Today] 2025 Trend AI-generated images © Reporter Hyun Seung-min |
Downward pressures on the labor market are confirmed by the slowdown in the December ISM manufacturing and service sector employment index and the increase in unemployment insurance recipients. Accordingly, the December nonfarm payrolls index is likely to show a slower pace of growth than in November. This change will contribute to the stabilization of interest rates and will also affect the direction of the Fed’s policy. The US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to show a gradual decline from the 4.6% level, which will also provide positive signals to investor sentiment.
In the global financial market, the burden of valuation has been putting pressure on major indices since late 2024, entering a correction phase. The S&P 500 has fallen by about 2.8% from its December high, and some industries have shown greater volatility. In particular, materials and energy have experienced downward earnings adjustments of -12.7% and -12.1%, respectively, but communication services have maintained a relatively stable profit flow. These fluctuations are due to macroeconomic factors such as slowing consumption due to the strong dollar, and are likely to weigh on the stock market in early 2025.
The domestic stock market is gaining positive momentum due to the reduction in exchange rate volatility and the net buying flow of foreign investors. The semiconductor, secondary battery, and software industries are still attracting the market’s attention, and the KOSPI’s 12-month forward PER is in the early 8x range, showing high valuation appeal. However, the fact that the downward revision of the 4th quarter performance is larger than expected is a factor limiting the market’s upward trend. In order for the performance improvement of domestic companies to continue, additional improvement in the foreign supply and demand environment will be necessary along with exchange rate stabilization.
Political variables also play an important role in the economic outlook for 2025. Major political events, such as the vote to reappoint the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, are likely to add uncertainty to the Fed’s policies and global financial markets. Such an environment requires investors to adopt new strategies and manage risks. Experts advise that new investment opportunities should be explored based on the stability of Treasury yields and exchange rate stability.
2025 will be a year of challenges and opportunities in both the global economy and domestic stock markets. Predicting economic volatility and establishing appropriate investment strategies accordingly will be key factors for successful economic management.
|
|
© The Korean Today – All Rights Reserved