ETF Market Outlook 2025: The S&P 500 and Alternative ETFs Take Off

ETF Market Outlook 2025: The S&P 500 and Alternative ETFs Take Off

The U.S. ETF (exchange-traded fund) market surpassed $10 trillion for the first time in history in November 2024. According to the latest data from Cerulli Associates, net inflows of $156 billion occurred in November, breaking the previous monthly record. This kind of activity is analyzed to be consistent with the market characteristics that often appear at the end of the year.

ETF Market Outlook 2025: The S&P 500 and Alternative ETFs Take Off

[Korean Today] Former New York Stock Exchange, USA © Reporter Hyun Seung-min

The S&P 500 ETF has been the center of the market this year, showing strong growth. The S&P 500 index has attracted investors’ attention by rising about 24% since the beginning of the year, and more than half of the increase is attributed to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ large-cap technology stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. These ETFs are popular among investors due to their low costs and high liquidity.

Experts believe that the S&P 500 ETF will still be a promising investment product in 2025. For example, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF follow a large-cap-focused growth strategy and provide cost-effective investment options. However, according to the mid-term forecast of Wall Street, it is difficult to expect double-digit growth like this year, and growth is expected to be in the high single digits.

Another important trend in 2024 is the rapid growth of the alternative ETF market. According to the Cerulli report, alternative ETFs will surpass $400 billion in net assets by 2024, growing at a 93% annual rate, outpacing other asset classes. Most of this is comprised of digital assets, leveraged equity, and derivatives ETFs. In the case of cryptocurrency ETFs, Bitcoin and Ethereum-based ETFs have taken the lead, with increased interest and adoption from major financial institutions.

In particular, iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF are among the top newly launched ETFs, providing investors with access to cryptocurrency investments. Experts predict that despite the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, related conversations and investment interest will continue to increase.

The rapid growth of the ETF market presents new opportunities for investors. However, risks such as the potential slowdown in the growth of large-cap technology stocks, the volatility of alternative ETFs, and the uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market must also be considered. Accordingly, experts advise investors to maintain portfolio diversification and a long-term perspective while carefully observing market changes.

More data and analysis on ETFs can be found on the Morningstar and Cerulli Associates websites.

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